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As on : 15-Apr-2025

Economy - Reports
15-Apr-2025 12:10

Indian economic growth momentum expected to accelerate in 2026 says OPEC

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC stated in a latest monthly update that India seems to have continued to see sound growth in 1Q25, a dynamic that may start to see a limited dampening factor from the introduction of US-centred tariffs on Indian import. Since the near-term developments are guided by the assumption that the fallout from US tariffs will be limited for India’s economy, the near-term growth dynamic in 1H25 stands at around the 2H24 economic growth dynamic. India’s economy continued to see sound economic growth in 4Q24 of 6.2%, y-o-y. India’s 3Q24 economic growth stood at 5.6%, y-o-y, down from 6.5%, y-o-y, in 2Q24, and growth of 8.4%, y-o-y, in 1Q24. Importantly, business sentiment indicators, including the March PMI, point to continued robust growth. Additionally, inflation fell further in February and has now moved below the midpoint of the central bank’s inflation expectations of 4%. Following an estimated growth level of around 6.4% in 1Q25, the Indian economy is forecast to maintain an average quarterly growth level of around 6.3% for the remainder of 2025. This momentum is expected to accelerate in 2026, reaching an average of 6.5%, y-o-y, on a quarterly average, with a slight appreciation from 1H26 to 2H26.

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